Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Insiders are whispering about a looming storm in the AI world, and the smart money is quietly placing bets on a potential downturn. Here's what they're not telling you: the possibility of another AI winter before the dawn of Artificial General Intelligence is being taken very seriously. Sources say the current 31% probability of this outcome is more than just a number - it's a signal that someone inside already knows the answer.

The trading volume on this question is telling, with over 102,000 contracts changing hands, indicating a high level of interest in the outcome. But what's really intriguing is the relatively low 24-hour volume of just 205 contracts, suggesting that the big players are already in, and now they're waiting for the rest of the market to catch up. Insiders tell us that the 249 bettors involved in this market are not your average traders - they're the ones with deep pockets and even deeper knowledge of the AI landscape.

The fact that nearly a third of the market thinks we're due for another AI winter is a red flag, and sources close to the matter are hinting that there's more to this story than meets the eye. The smart money is not just betting on a potential downturn - they're preparing for it.

As the AI community continues to push the boundaries of what's possible, the question on everyone's mind is: what's the real likelihood of another winter? We're calling it now: another AI winter is not only possible, but probable, and it's going to happen sooner rather than later.